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How to Choose 3 Draws or 5 in Football Betting

By: Olivia Lake

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Usually, most football teams carry out in line with their current results history. This means that in general they'll tend to lose against better teams, and win against poorer teams. The quality from the teams is reflected by their position in their league, when the season has stabilized and 'all other things are equal'.

Now, we could take the fundamental league positions because the guide to type, but this can change on a day to day basis for reasons unrelated to the group itself - for example by the results of other teams. So, we need to have a slightly more sophisticated method of assessing group overall performance which requires account of current results (but how current?). That's the first part.

Then, we require a way of assessing every match in advance to arrive at a most likely outcome, ideally having the ability to put a number to this so that we can evaluate 1 match with an additional and determine which is much more most likely to become a home win, a draw or an away win. In this way we are able to arrive at a ranking for every of the 49 matches on a British coupon (which may of course cover Australian football matches during the British summer time). That is the second part.

Analysis of the 2009-2010 British football season gives us an idea of what the typical outcomes are. Over the whole season (40 pools coupons), 45% of matches had been house wins, 26% had been away wins, and 27% had been draws (score and non-score draws combined).

So, having a group overall performance measure, a way of comparing matches and also the above statistics, we can start to 'home in' and exactly where the draws may lie (or, for that matter, the homes and aways, if that's your betting preference).

General these are just averages - every week will probably be different and there will probably be some unexpected outcomes.

So, to maximise our probabilities of winning, whether it is the treble opportunity or fixed odds, we require a method to spread our stakes. We do this utilizing plans or perms, which allow us cover many combinations. After all, to forecast 3 draws from 49 matches on a random basis is quite a long shot (the odds are over 18,000 to 1). In a 10 horse race, you have odds of 10/1 of picking the winner.

With fixed odds betting, the bookie may have adjusted the payout odds to account (initially) for the likely outcomes, and also the odds will drift based on the stakes becoming placed by other punters. So, whilst in practice we could stake say 10 cents per mixture, that is a large stake for 18,000 lines and we wouldn't cover it with a win on account from the fixed odds (even if the bookie would take the bet), although we would in all probability have many winning lines if there were say eight draws within the outcomes.

Nevertheless, if we were to lay a bet of three draws from ten matches (120 separate bets), or 5 aways from 10 (252 separate bets) then we would likely get a lot much better odds. This is because the odds are much longer; however, if we pick our ten draw forecast cautiously, then we are able to reduce the odds significantly, and nonetheless possess the possibility of numerous winning lines and creating a profit.

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