I would bet every person in america that McCain will not win. People are tired of Bush and his failed policies. People want a change. They are not going to vote for clone of George Bush. The democrats could have Charlie Manson on the ticket and he would win. That is how bad that people want a change from bush and his cronies. Get a clue!
No. This is because of the democrat policy of buying votes outside of polling places, universities and churches in prior elections. They are also not too proud to enlist the help of illegal immigrants, jailed felons and even people who have been dead for several years as voters. Let's not forget the supporters they invited to vote early (and often) as factors as well. Contrary to liberal folklore, this was the only reason an emotionless, issue-challenged and flip-flopping mannequin like John Kerry was able to stay so close in his bid for election.
Intrade is a "pay to play" gambling market that spun off of tradesports.com, a markets similar to that of horse racing or college basketball brackets.
Right now, if you think John McCain is going to win, you can bet $36 with your friends, or you can do it online at Intrade. What makes Intrade so attractive is the rewards (and losses) that come with the risks taken.
Let's say Sen. Obama joins a new church and it has another radical pastor who's the latest headline in the news. This would lower the chances of him winning and increase the chances of McCain winning. Because his chances are higher, people are willing to bet higher prices and if you fix bidding quantities you can establish a share price (that $36 horse racing ticket on McCain). But since he's more likely to win, people might start betting $45 or even $50 on him.
Now let's imagine in November Obama's stock is $49 and McCain's is $50 ($100 is the max). Turns out Obama wins the election. Obama's betters win the market value of their shares while McCain's betters receive nothing.
What really makes things exciting is the ability to sell shares before the election's even over.So if you bought McCain at $35 and people find out that Hamas endorsed Obama raising McCain's stock to $45, you can sell you holdings and earn a $10 gain per share!
Now if you think about, this type of market is known mostly by people familiar with markets rather than just gambling addicts. People don't just drop large sums of money hoping their candidate would win- they could just do that with a sports team.
When it comes to politics and world events,one's guess is much educated and fortified with highly intelligent reasoning. Compare the predictions market's history with that of polling agencies and actuaries.
But to answer your question, no, I would not bet either on McCain because I doubt he will win. His predecessor has fooled everyone into thinking Republicans are bad and more Democrats are the solution. Plus Obama has him beat right now by 25pts.
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