There is a lot of speculation that the reason Hillary is staying in the race is because she recognizes that Obama cannot win the national election, and it will give her the opportunity to borrow a line from her secret mutual admirer and declare: "See, I Told You So," then come back more powerful than ever in 2012 to oppose McCain's then proven failed policies.
By staying in, she gets a better sense of the entire playing field that she will have to work with in 2012, where she did well and where she needs to concentrate her efforts better. (She's actually quite brilliant in this regard, for staying in.)
To that extent, many Hillary supporters say they will actually vote for McCain, or sit out the election altogether, to insure a disastrous landslide against Obama.
They realize Obama would be a weak president, naive, inexperienced, amateurish. And McCain would help destroy the Republican party, putting the nails in the coffin Bush built.
Is this strategy a wise move?
And ironically, isn't this really Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" in reverse? (Get McCain elected so that it sets Dems up for a mega-victory in both 2010 (congressional) and 2012 (President Hillary Clinton)?
i see either obuma or mccain as a one term pony and i think it would be foolish of her to be a vp. she accepts a vp position and obama loses she would be taking a big hit and if he wins i think it would be hard not to be tied to him for 8 years because she couldnt run against him in '12
If you are really set on Hillary, then that is her best chance. But the question is can you survive four more years of this? Or its close imitation? Or what if somehow people start supporting McCain? When it comes down to it, a Dem's best choice is a Dem. Obama has a good chance of winning if people's dislike for the current republican administration is played on, any other way there are far too many variables. (And in the end, Hillary also isn't that well liked either. She has some of the highest negatives ever for a candidate)
"To that extent, many Hillary supporters say they will actually vote for McCain, or sit out the election altogether, to insure a disastrous landslide against Obama."
This is ridiculous. Why would any Democrat fracture the party in this manner? I cannot imagine why a Hillary supporter would ever, EVER consider voting for that whacked old man McCain. He's so far to the right he makes Bush seem tame.
What gives you the impression that Obama would be amateurish if elected President? Inexperienced, yes, naive, probably not as much as the average person. Weak? Why? Don't you think he can figure out how to put together a successful cabinet?
We don't need democrats playing games with our government. Whoever gets the nod to go up against McCain should have the support of all dems.
Hillary Clinton had 40% of the country saying they would never vote for her at the beginning of this election. After her campaign antics, she added millions of democrats to those ranks. Her only shot was 2008.
A large percentage of these newly registered democrats aren't actually democrats. They have imerged this year to support one candidate, and if that one does not get the nomination, they will not vote along party lines.
Do not underestimate the Republican party. A low approval rating for Bush does not translate into party jumping. Republican are united against liberals and Obama is certainly seen as one. The red states that went for Bush in 2004 will win it for McCain again. Hillary would have had a hard time getting elected but Obama has even less of a chance.
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Face it, the majority of American voters would not put their pants on to go out and vote in those primaries but election day is a whole other story.
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This is just politics. A strategy like this, is not only smart for Hillary; her staying in the race is also the wisest decision she could make for her party... for several reasons.
1. Its a way to measure the kind of support she has; to her own campaign, to the DNC, and to her supporters… who are insisting that she does stay in. But, if Obama becomes the nominee, his campaign will use these primary results to their advantage as well. Because Clinton is still in the race, these primary results will give them a clear picture of who exactly supported Clinton; then, they will use this data to develop a strategy to try and win these votes.
(If Clinton had dropped out, the Obama camp would be 'in the dark' about how these states might vote in November. In that sense, Clinton is acting as the baseline for the Obama camp, and making it possible for them to more accurately measure what Obama is really up against in these states.)
2. It shows she is strong enough to handle these odds, without letting it affect her performance... in fact, she has become a far stronger candidate over the course of these primaries, where as, Obama has gotten weaker. (Obama has lost a portion of his base of support, compared to earlier primaries.) It takes a great deal of strength and personal courage to do what Hillary is doing right now. This is proving her ability to remain strong under pressure, when in the presence of heavy criticism. That in itself is a very important presidential quality. As you said, if Obama messes this up, like many expect he will… Clinton will be in a better position to run again in 2012 than any other democrat.
3. If Clinton had dropped out early, it would have essentially disenfranchised all the voters who were/are still waiting to cast their votes. Had the race been called off early, it could have upset these voters; causing more problems for the Democratic Party in the long run than it was worth. Everyone is going to have a chance to vote on an even playing field now, since Clinton is still in the race.
4. If more 'surprises' pop out of Obama's closet between now and August, Clinton can step in and take his place. This isn't selfish opportunism on her part. Can you imagine the nightmare, if the DNC had to come up with a new candidate at the last minute? Especially if one candidate ran uncontested during the later races, and a ‘spare’ nominee didn’t have enough delegates. By keeping Clinton in the race... they will have plenty of justification to pull a last minute 'switch-a-roo' in case something goes wrong. Had she stopped accumulating delegates... a scenario like this would be more problematic.
In my view, those are the primary reasons she hasn't quit. In my opinion, the people who complain about her ‘hanging around’ have a very shallow understanding of what is actually at stake here. Unlike the media, which focuses only on 'the here and now' or the headline of the day; politicians must always consider the long term consequences of anything they do and say. Headlines of the day only rarely make permanent political impacts; that's why the most successful politicians always have at least one eye on the future at all times.
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