I know some people like to make a trifecta box with the first, second, and fourth favorite horses. Or like in the Preakness where you have one heavily bet on favorite and the rest of the field with great odds, you put an exacta wheel with the favorite over the field. But what do you guys like to do/what wins you the most money?
I am a professional handicapper for Trackside Broadcasting. First don't fall for any "systems". There are some principles of handicapping I can share with you now, and I do free handicapping shows you can listen to online at tracksidebroadcasting.com-look for Kristin Slape, you have to join to hear the shows but that is free. I will be doing some shows starting next week. I love horses and love talking about them.
Ok, first remember, though it is a cliche, there is no such thing as a "sure thing". That is so true. What may look good on paper may not play out on the track. Always remember these are animals and with that anything can happen. Maybe the horse just doesn't feel like running today, maybe a bird flying above grabs his attention and throws him off his game...as I said, anything can happen. With that in mind here are some things I have learned over the years, but remember while they do work many times, you cannot always count on them, that is why it is gambling and is a risk.
Maiden Special Weight Races: First off, a MSW is a race where the horses cannot be claimed (bought by another owner) and none of the horses have ever won a race.Many times you will have first time starters (NEVER raced in a race before) in a race, they can be a "crap shoot" as no one really knows how they will run first time out. There are sires (and even dams) of these horses that excell with first time out progeny (their sons and daughters)--you can find out percentages and stuff in their past performances (I prefer brisnet PP's over DRF)--remember though even a FT horse with a good sire or dam can lose a first race, so it is a risk. Workouts are sometimes an indicator but sometimes works don't translate over to the race. So in general when I am betting a MDN Spec weight race, I look for second time starters that showed decent early speed in their last race and look at their workouts since. If you don't have a second timer in the field, I looked for horses with good early speed and decent speed figures. You usually prefer the horses that have had only a start or two over the ones who have been trying over and over without success. Some actually learn how to lose and stay that way, or end up in the next race type:
Maiden Claiming Races: Horses entered here CAN be claimed (taken away from one owner and goes to another owner who buys it for the claiming price). I generally stay away from FT starter horses in these type of races because why would a trainer who has a horse that has NEVER run a race put him in a race where he can lose him? Unless there is something amiss or they want him to be claimed. I am not saying they never win, they may be in a race with chronic losers and end up winning not because they are great but because they win by default, everyone else is that bad. So in general look for the horses that are dropping from MSW into the maiden claiming race, and especially note horses that ran decently against the tougher maidens. I have a show up on Trackside right now that is 100% free that talks about these 2 types of races in depth. I will be adding shows all week and giving some free picks during the week too. And so I can put my money where my mouth is, check the page that has handicapper's past picks and see my report for the Preakness where I picked the winner of 8 races (of 13) in my top pick, a #2 pick winner and a #3 pick winner for a total of 10 winners on the Preakness card. I know my horses and I am glad to give free info because I love this sport.
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